How do I interpret the Outage Prediction data and map display?

The Utility Impact Prediction feature provides valuable Outage Prediction data to make informed preparedness decisions on for impending storms.

The Time Series Hazard Table displays system wide Ensemble Mean hazard values for Wind, Wet Snow, and Ice in three (3) hour blocks for each 24-hour period up to 168 hours in advance for the NBM and 48 hours in advance for the HRRR. The table represents the entire distribution system. Each pill segment has hover-over modal to display the individual hazard data and is color-coded to indicate severity according to thresholds. The Wind, Wet Snow, Ice, and Heavy Precipitation data for each "pill" is cumulative.

User can select Accumulation periods (24, 48, or 72 hours) for Wet Snow and Ice (grayed out for Wind).
NOTE: Select 48 or 72 hours if the storm bridges one or more days.

NOTE: Wind gusts are expressed in miles per hour (mph), Wet snow is quantified in inches of liquid equivalent (LE). PRATUS reports snow in terms of liquid equivalent to provide a more accurate representation of the water content within the snow, which is crucial due to the variability in snow density. Ice accumulation is measured in inches of flat ice accumulation. 

For example, if 10" snow melted, there would be 1" of liquid equivalent. PRATUS reports 1" of LE to better capture the density of the snow because you can have different snow to liquid ratios.

The Peak System table displays the selected hazard (Wind, Wet Snow, or Ice) using scenarios of 10%, 25%, 75%, and 90% probability, and the Mean for each county, region or district depending on what was selected. This table constructs daily max / aggregations (depending on hazard) out seven (7) days. The data is based on the utilities overhead line mileage whether that is transmission or distribution.  However, transmission lines are treated as distribution lines for the outage model because the model was trained using overhead distribution lines.

Each row of the scenario displays the highest hazard value of all regions/districts. The drop-down arrow for each scenario will expand the table to display the individual values for each county, region, or district.

Example: A 90 % Probability in UIP means there’s a 90% chance of exceeding X miles per hour of Wind with a 10% chance it will be less than that value.

NOTE: The wind outage model uses the National Blend of Models for its wind gust inputs. The National Blend of Models takes into account many lower resolution global models which sometimes have trouble resolving extreme winds. Therefore, the wind outage model may struggle with predicting outages if the NBM does not resolve the extreme winds well.

The Map is a visual representation of the data that includes a timescale to see the predictions (168hours for NBM, 48hrs for HRRR). The timescale can be played with an automatic loop or forwarded manually to each day. The legend at the top of the map displays the colors of each threshold for reference. 

Clicking on a colored map segment will bring up a modal that displays the value and the date/time of the run data and the selected scenario from the top of the map. Clicking on the search icon will zoom the map to the affected area. The modal can be "docked" to the top right corner of the map, minimized/maximized, or closed as desired.